The issue of potential LDS support for Obama continues to bubble around the bloggernacle; see for example here and here for opposing views. I will note for the record that I haven’t on this blog stated that I would support Obama or that I thought other Latter-day Saints should. What I have stated, repeatedly, is that with the right pro-active outreach from Obama himself, he could well win over Utah against a McCain/Huckabee or even a McCain/not-Huckabee ticket.

Here’s the interesting part. I’m in Utah this week, visiting relatives (kids, grandkids, in-laws, etc.), but I made some time today to have lunch with an old friend/colleague whom I’ve known since I taught at BYU some 20+ years ago. We exchange e-mails a few times a year, but it’s probably been a decade since we’ve actually seen each other face to face.

Anyway, we’re sitting at lunch today, and out of the blue, my friend — I’ll call him Bill — starts to raise the issue of the upcoming election. I’ll note for the record that he has never read this blog and he hasn’t read my other blog for a few months. Also, this is the issue he chose to raise; I had said absolutely nothing about politics or the election. And yet he proceeds to explain his feelings regarding the Republican primary race, particularly regarding the anti-Mormon aspect to it, then tells me that he’s been reading Obama’s book (The Audacity of Hope), which he says is actually quite rational and even-handed (his words). The upshot: he tells me that he’s voted a straight Republican party ticket for 25+ years, but he’s seriously considering voting for Obama in the fall, particularly if Huckabee is on the Republican ticket, but even if it’s just McCain plus someone else.

As I said elsewhere, the plural of ‘anecdote’ is not ‘data’. But it was startling to have Bill bring this up out of the blue and — with no input or prompting from me, and as I said, never having read this blog — recite to me almost exactly the same decision-making process that I’ve been describing here and that others have described elsewhere.  This is a self-described staunch LDS conservative, well-educated (PhD) and established in his profession, with a large family at home. Yet he’s ready to vote for Obama for all the reasons that we’ve been kicking around.

For what it’s worth.  ..bruce..

P.S. If you are interested in my personal political thinking, see this post on my other blog.

GOP candidate Mike Huckabee now says that he was misunderstood in making what were perceived as anti-Mormon comments:

WASHINGTON — Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee says it is “unfounded” for anyone to say he has alienated the Mormon community or that he used rival Mitt Romney’s LDS faith as a wedge issue.

Huckabee, talking to reporters over breakfast in Washington Tuesday just two blocks from the White House, blamed a single remark he made to The New York Times Magazine last year — when he asked whether Mormons believed Jesus and Satan are brothers — as the cause of the angst in the Mormon community.

The LDS Church issued a statement following that remark that acknowledged the belief that Jesus and Satan were both children of God, as well as all of humanity. Still, Huckabee’s comment was seen by many as pejorative.

Some members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints have charged that Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor, was tapping into wariness about Mormons in campaigning against Romney. Some even raised the specter in letters to the editor that they would vote Democratic if Huckabee were the GOP nominee.

Huckabee said Tuesday he would have concern if anyone said he had estranged the Mormon community. 

Fine. If Huckabee is serious, here’s all he needs to to: publicly and unequivocally state “Yes, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is a Christian church.”

Not holding my breath.

In the meantime, Martin E. Marty — who, unlike Huckabee, actually knows a fair amount about the LDS Church — has his own observations about what went on in the GOP primaries:

Now that Governor Romney is off the campaign trail — we don’t do any columns of candidates on the trail — we can, without commenting on him or the part his church and faith played in his demise, do a retrospective on the Mormon-hate that blighted air waves, the internet, and some printed quotations while he was spotlit…

Taking testimony about the evils of Mormonism by ex-Mormons is likely to be as objective as it is if it comes against Catholicism by ex-Catholics. Were it our calling, we could find profound fault with many policies and actions of some Latter-Day-Saints or members and leaders of other faiths. My own company, that of historians, is in the business of telling stories about others’ stories. No one is to be uncritical, where there is often much to criticize. But criticism is one thing; hate-speech and untruths are another.

Amen, Martin.  ..bruce..

It was via an article by Rob Graham over at the Beehive Standard Weekly that I first learned of the outreach by Barack Obama campaign personnel towards Latter-day Saints here in the West. Now Rob has put together a rather lengthy commentary summarizing what’s been kicking around on various news sources and blogs: if Obama (w/out Clinton) is the Democratic candidate this fall, large numbers of Mormons may abandon the GOP and vote for Obama instead:

 The many Mormons I have spoken to in attempting to obtain a read on how Mormons will vote in November are universally stating that they will either not vote for the Republican candidate, which is likely to be McCain, or they will vote for Obama as a candidate who will include Mormons in his campaign. If the candidate is Huckabee, the Mormons will turn out in droves to reject him as he openly used religion against the Mormons, which would result in a heavy vote for Obama.

Obama has taken note. In Obama’s Super Tuesday speech, he made it very clear that his candidacy is inclusive of disaffected Republicans, as well as those who share differing religious views — e.g., code word for Mormons. He is a smart character and he knows what it feels like to be on the receiving end of bigotry. He perceives he can tap into that well and turn the Mormon vote in his direction. He can also bridge to the Mormons on race as Mormons have been viewed as intolerant because of excluding their priesthood leadership responsibilities where the rank-and-file Mormon population is far from racist and as a group they have been seeking a way to heal the perceived racist policies of the past. Many prominent black Americans, such as Gladys Knight, who have joined the church have found racial ignorance in the church’s mostly white and Hispanic population, but not intolerance or open racism in the church. With some patience, Obama can appeal to the members of the Mormon faith and become a popular symbol for overcoming the church’s past perceived isolationist and racially-based policies.

Of course, Obama sees the possibilities and recently sent his wife out to Salt Lake City to meet with two members of the Mormon Church hierarchy and had photographs taken with them. It was all smiles and mutual understanding. No one would have thought the Mormons would embrace so openly and warmly a black American candidate and his family, but bigotry, religious intolerance and racism does create a common cause and mutual understanding among its victims.

Like Evangelicals, Mormons also have their differences with liberals, but the feeling is different with Obama as he is reaching out and acknowledging the differences, but emphasizing the similarities while assuring Mormons that they would be treated with respect in expressing their differences. A close analysis of Obama’s policies finds some common ground which could result in broad-based support from Mormons. For instance, the Mormon emphasis on family values, education, welfare, compassion, self-reliance and the like are all significant political similarities.

Be sure to read the entire article. Graham pulls all the pieces together to a level of detail that no one has to date, at least not that I’ve seen.  I fully believe that with some relatively modest but explicit outreach towards Latter-day Saints, Obama could indeed gain hundreds of thousands of votes in key Western states, including Utah, Idaho, Arizona, Colorado, and California. Given how few votes the last few Presidential elections have hinged upon, that could be enough to help Obama win the Presidency.  ..bruce..

OK, Obama won the Utah Democratic primary (quite handily) and has other things to worry about for the next six months than how Utah will vote in the fall (such as, winning the nomination in the first place). But it strikes me that in an Obama/not-Hillary vs. McCain/maybe-Huckabee matchup, Obama could probably flip Utah (and possibly Idaho) from the red column to the blue — and gain support in heavily LDS areas of California and Arizona — with a simple statement along these lines [note: this is my suggested language, not anything that Obama has actually said]:

Republicans seek to divide, seek to exclude, seek to reject those who do not meet some obscure or arbitrary standard. We saw this during the Republican primaries, when an entire church — a uniquely American religion, one whose members are widely admired for their citizenship, their upright lives and their service to others — was repeatedly criticized as being not Christian, in fact as being of the devil. What’s more, this was done those who set themselves up as judges of all things Christian, by supporters of the Republican candidate for Vice-President, Mike Huckabee. Well, to our Mormon sisters and brothers, you who are our Christian sisters and brothers, we say: come home. Come back to the Democratic Party, which you supported through so much of the 20th Century. We have no questions of your Christian faith; indeed, your global humanitarian service, local community involvement, and commitment to religious pluralism are exactly what we want and need, what we as Democrats stand for. It is we, the Democratic Party, not the Republican Party, who say as your founder Joseph Smith said: ‘We claim the privilege of worshiping Almighty God according to the dictates of our own conscience, and allow all men and women the same privilege, let them worship how, where, or what they may.’ We seek to include, not exclude, to accept, not turn away. We are not afraid of your successes as a church; we welcome them and want to learn from them. To paraphrase the late Martin Luther King: we judge you not by the particulars of your faith but by the content of your character. Like many of us, you have known persecution and prejudice, and you cherish freedom and civil rights. And like many of us, you seek to build a better world. As our Christian brothers and sister, come join the rest of us — in all our variety of beliefs, faiths and convictions — in building that better world. Come home.

And with that one, short speech, Obama could well turn vast numbers of US-based Latter-day Saints into supporters, particularly given these factors. They may not change party registration (though I suspect quite a few would, particularly if Obama continued his outreach to Latter-day Saints after election), but I think they would vote heavily for Obama over McCain (and particularly McCain/Huckabee) in the fall.

Of course, if the GOP ticket is McCain/Romney, it wouldn’t matter what Obama said; Latter-day Saints would vote Republican in a big way. ..bruce..

I’ve been saying for some time that there’s a real chance that Utah, considered the most Republican of all states, could actually go Democratic in the Presidential election this fall, particularly if Mike Huckabee is on the GOP ticket. As I pointed out in that previous article, Utah through most of the 20th Century (particularly the 1917-1985 period) elected a Democratic governor and at least one Democratic Senator about 75% of the time.

Now, an article in this morning’s Deseret News reports the following in the aftermath of Romney’s departure from the GOP nomination:

Only 30 percent of Utahns polled in a new Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV survey Thursday said they’d vote for the presumptive Republican nominee for president, Arizona Sen. John McCain.

And nearly as many, 25 percent, said they would cast their ballot for a Democrat, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Eleven percent said their choice was another Democrat, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

The other Republicans still in the race, Texas Rep. Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, had only minimal support — 3 percent for Paul, a onetime Libertarian candidate for president, and just 2 percent for Huckabee, a Southern Baptist minister.

As I noted before, not just the Huckabee campaign but also (to a lesser extent) the McCain campaign has been involved in anti-Mormon smears while campaigning against Romney. Those should halt now that Romney’s out of the race — but the Republican Party should not underestimate how many Mormons are upset by the anti-Mormon prejudice rampant through the Religious Right portion of the GOP, particularly as it has come out during the campaign. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination and continues his outreach efforts to Mormons, and the GOP puts forth a McCain/Huckabee ticket, Utah could seriously be in play this fall. ..bruce..

UPDATE: While it’s merely anecdotal, here’s a post on an LDS blog that captures what a lot of Mormons are feeling. (Be sure to read the comments as well.)

UPDATE: On the other hand, just to keep perspective, the last time that Utah went Democratic in a US Presidential election was 40 years ago, in 1968, when Utah (like pretty much the rest of the country) went for Johnson over Goldwater.

UPDATE: On the third hand, here’s an experience I just had where a friend — a Utah Republican of long standing — informed me out of the blue that he’s seriously thinking of voting for Obama.